The Met Office predict that 2023 will be one of the hottest years on record as the global annual temperature is expected to be warmer than this year. According to the Met Office the average global temperature for 2023 is forecast to be between 1.08 °C and 1.32°C above the average for the pre-industrial period (1850-1900).
The expected warmer conditions next year come after the UK has seen freezing temperatures in the past week with heavy snowfall and lakes freezing over. 2023 will be the the tenth consecutive year that temperatures have reached at least 1°C above pre-industrial levels.
The Met Office’s Dr Nick Dunstone, who has led the 2023 global temperature forecast, said: “The global temperature over the last three years has been influenced by the effect of a prolonged La Niña – where cooler than average sea-surface temperatures occur in the tropical Pacific. La Niña has a temporary cooling effect on global average temperature.
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“For next year our climate model is indicating an end to the three consecutive years with La Niña state with a return to relative warmer conditions in parts of the tropical Pacific. This shift is likely to lead to global temperature in 2023 being warmer than 2022.”
Prof. Adam Scaife, head of long-range prediction at the Met Office, added: “So far 2016 has been the warmest year in the observational record which began in 1850. 2016 was an El Niño year where the global temperature was boosted by warmer waters in parts of the tropical Pacific.
"Without a preceding El Niño to boost global temperature, 2023 may not be a record-breaking year, but with the background increase in global greenhouse gas emissions continuing apace it is likely that next year will be another notable year in the series.”
The forecast is based on the key drivers of the global climate, but it doesn’t include unpredictable events such as large volcanic eruptions, which would cause a temporary cooling.
Dr Doug Smith, one of our leading experts in climate prediction, added: “The fact that global average temperatures are at or above 1.0°C for a decade masks the considerable temperature variation across the world. Some locations such as the Arctic have warmed by several degrees since pre-industrial times.”
The Met Office added: "Global temperatures are rising and there is a need to act swiftly to keep global mean temperature below 1.5°C to avoid the worst impacts of climate change."
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